Friendly reminder: 100 percent of OIC states are totalitarian, 100 percent of racially diverse empires became long-term moral disasters, 100 percent of majority Muslim states subjugate infidels, and 100 percent of oligarchies in racially diverse lands use divide-and-rule practices.
Any legitimate historical expert would tell you these facts if only they gave a crap about moral truths.
If I were a billionaire, I'd slap these facts on billboards.
We don't need in depth causal factor analysis to see these facts, though sometimes analyzing causal factors is helpful. No matter the multitudes of genetic and environmental causal factors, the long-term results are similar.
To rephrase Orwell, the hardest and most important things to see are sometimes right in front of our noses.
Thursday, March 3, 2016
Where Things Stand
The increase in pro-Western beliefs, evidenced by increases in alternative right political candidates that would have been improbable 30 years ago, does not seem to be causing massive overall declines in support for cultural Marxism within the former United States, especially among college freshmen.
Direct measures of support for cultural Marxism are difficult to find. A decent proxy measure for multicultural support is support for restricting free speech. One ongoing poll hints that restriction support remains roughly constant, at around 60 percent. (The use of the self-contradicting R-word slur in the article does not help.)
The overall number of whites fleeing cultural Marxism appears to roughly equal the number of nonwhites imported into the cultural Marxian fold.
It will be intriguing to see what the 2016 poll finds.
Seventy-one percent of U.S. college freshmen in 2015 supported speech restrictions, the highest level since such polling began.
(When I was a naive teenager and heard an individual attended a prestigious university, I thought, wow, that individual must be far superior to me. Now, when I hear individuals attended a prestigious university, I imagine individuals devoted to egoism, careerism, groupthink, fanaticism, cultural Marxism, and general moral cluelessness, despite having far more IQ, educational, and other advantages than myself.)
Alternatives to multiculturalism still have a long, long way to go. Despite improvements, no alternative right website ranks anywhere near the top in Quantcast website visitor rankings for 2016. Amren ranks 30,259 and Vdare 30,971.
The power of unethical taboos is immense.
Daniel Pipes, and several other semi-alternative sites do manage higher ranks, but are hardly pro-Western.
Evidence on migration issues is hopeful.
But most Westerners remain unaware of ethnoracial facts. Listening to establishment thinkers talk about ethnoracial issues is a surreal experience, worse than listening to children talk about chemical engineering would be. Rachel Maddow is still a household name. JP Rushton is not. Trump tapped immigration patriot ideas, but multitudes of other ethnoracial issues are neglected.
Reddit and similar sites provide side benefits for cultural Marxism. Individuals visit Reddit for entertainment, then get subtly or splenetically indoctrinated with anti-white narratives in most political subreddits. "I'm going to hell for this," and similar subreddits do not help, making the alternative right look cruel to ordinary Redditors, serving as convenient straw persons. The HBD, European, and New Right subreddits have few visitors compared to the 234 million unique visitors Reddit received per month in 2015 (if Wikipedia's source is accurate).
Establishment propaganda techniques are powerful, almost never letting a crisis go to waste, meaning redirecting the crisis response toward nefarious agendas, especially "security measure" profiteering.
Some writers might emphasize group polarization in the multicultural divide. But most of the alternative right might be less polarized. In establishment lingo, alt righters are big tent moderates compared to the neoconservatives who dominated conservative parties for decades. Newcomers to the nonmulticultural left and alternative right are simply starting to face facts despite lifelong indoctrination and intimidation tactics. The group polarization model does fit multiculturalism.
Kudos to the race realists who have brought us this far. Seriously.
The long, hard, happy work to escape the death grips of cultural Marxism is still in its infancy. But it beats wasting our lives reading puns on Reddit.
Direct measures of support for cultural Marxism are difficult to find. A decent proxy measure for multicultural support is support for restricting free speech. One ongoing poll hints that restriction support remains roughly constant, at around 60 percent. (The use of the self-contradicting R-word slur in the article does not help.)
The overall number of whites fleeing cultural Marxism appears to roughly equal the number of nonwhites imported into the cultural Marxian fold.
It will be intriguing to see what the 2016 poll finds.
Seventy-one percent of U.S. college freshmen in 2015 supported speech restrictions, the highest level since such polling began.
(When I was a naive teenager and heard an individual attended a prestigious university, I thought, wow, that individual must be far superior to me. Now, when I hear individuals attended a prestigious university, I imagine individuals devoted to egoism, careerism, groupthink, fanaticism, cultural Marxism, and general moral cluelessness, despite having far more IQ, educational, and other advantages than myself.)
Alternatives to multiculturalism still have a long, long way to go. Despite improvements, no alternative right website ranks anywhere near the top in Quantcast website visitor rankings for 2016. Amren ranks 30,259 and Vdare 30,971.
The power of unethical taboos is immense.
Daniel Pipes, and several other semi-alternative sites do manage higher ranks, but are hardly pro-Western.
Evidence on migration issues is hopeful.
But most Westerners remain unaware of ethnoracial facts. Listening to establishment thinkers talk about ethnoracial issues is a surreal experience, worse than listening to children talk about chemical engineering would be. Rachel Maddow is still a household name. JP Rushton is not. Trump tapped immigration patriot ideas, but multitudes of other ethnoracial issues are neglected.
Reddit and similar sites provide side benefits for cultural Marxism. Individuals visit Reddit for entertainment, then get subtly or splenetically indoctrinated with anti-white narratives in most political subreddits. "I'm going to hell for this," and similar subreddits do not help, making the alternative right look cruel to ordinary Redditors, serving as convenient straw persons. The HBD, European, and New Right subreddits have few visitors compared to the 234 million unique visitors Reddit received per month in 2015 (if Wikipedia's source is accurate).
Establishment propaganda techniques are powerful, almost never letting a crisis go to waste, meaning redirecting the crisis response toward nefarious agendas, especially "security measure" profiteering.
Some writers might emphasize group polarization in the multicultural divide. But most of the alternative right might be less polarized. In establishment lingo, alt righters are big tent moderates compared to the neoconservatives who dominated conservative parties for decades. Newcomers to the nonmulticultural left and alternative right are simply starting to face facts despite lifelong indoctrination and intimidation tactics. The group polarization model does fit multiculturalism.
Kudos to the race realists who have brought us this far. Seriously.
The long, hard, happy work to escape the death grips of cultural Marxism is still in its infancy. But it beats wasting our lives reading puns on Reddit.
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Separations or Bust
Many individuals act as if the only ethnoracial alternatives for societies are segregation or cultural Marxism. Or mixtures of both, combined into contradiction riddled biosocial monstrosities.
Segregation is separation within the same state.
Nonwhites mix segregation and cultural Marxism without widespread condemnation occurring, for example, segregation is rampant in Muslim countries. Policies in nonwhite countries massively discriminate against various ethnoracial groups (Copts, Mandeans, "guest" workers) without much wailing from multicultural media..
Nonwealthy whites get demonized for segregation by wealthy whites and others who self-segregate on the basis of their wealth. The moral views of wealthy whites are beyond warped. Wealthy whites act as if they become better persons by using totalitarian government actions to force dystopian integration on nonwealthy whites.
In sum, nonwhites and wealthy whites enjoy freedom of association, free to create groups that exclude others.
(Almost everything wealthy whites do in the public moral realm is immoral BS. They believe combinations of Randism, neoconservatism, third wayism, and cultural Marxism. They drive SUVs while acting smug for doing environmentally worthless activities like recycling plastic.)
But segregation and cultural Marxism are both evils.
The only ethical alternatives are complete peaceful separations. Whites must form their own self-reliant societies with no nonwhites. Other ethnoracial groups should do the same.
Trump is not great. He's an ethnoracial improvement, but he's a non-open borders multiculturalist with atrocious ideas on non-multicultural issues. Trump will make the white percentage of the population decline at a slower rate, but he will not reverse the decline.
Under Trumpism, millions of African-American men will continue to impregnate and abandon nonblack females, leaving the massive personal and social costs to whites, especially the family members of white females acting with naivete or recklessness. The main cuckolding is of nonwealthy whites. Despite being slurred as cucks*rvatives, wealthy Republican politicians seldom get cuckolded. Republican politicians engage in free riding via divide-and-rule, cheap labor, and other atrocious practices of neoclassical economics. Establishment politicians force the costs of cuckolding on the rest of us.
Trump will not enact eugenic and pro-natalist policies for whites. The total fertility rate for white-white matings will continue to decline or remain low.
The ethical costs of empire, militarism, dysgenics, and rotten ideologies will continue to rise.
Nonwhites will have less to feel discriminated about in white only nation-states since they will not live in these nation-states. And if nonwhites want to believe Marxian fallacies about Western wealth being dependent on exploitation of nonwhites, let them do it in their own societies where they can do less harm to whites.
Nonwhites act hyper-tribalistic. They notice most real or imagined slights while whites are indoctrinated to ignore evils by nonwhites and establishments. We regularly read about "microaggressions" and "code words" and "racially charged" and "dog whistling," even as the mass media fail to report that blacks are dozens of times more likely to commit violent stranger-on-stranger crimes against whites than vice versa. The dog whistling charade is risible. The Democratic and Republican establishments engaged in massive anti-white destruction for decades, yet we are supposed to worry about secret dog whistles from establishment Republican politicians, no matter how anti-white these politicians' actual policies are.
Since the supporters of cultural Marxism imagine group genetic differences are insignificant and view nonwhite cultures as superb, almost all suffering and misbehavior by nonwhites must, in their view, have whites as the most important cause. No matter what whites do, whites will be constantly be blamed and punished. Anyone who thinks the blame whitey campaign will end in the next thousand years is wrong.
If the last white person takes their last breath several hundred years from now, nonwhite leaders will continue to blame whites with their own far worse divide-and-rule practices.
Many mass media organizations ban their opinion makers from using slurs, yet simple Google searches reveal millions of anti-white slurs being used by the mass media (r*cist, b*got, Isl*mophobe, white supr*mecist, white tr*sh). Again, multiculturalists are not attuned to contradictions in their own behavior or contradictions in the behavior by other multiculturalists.
With the exception their own white friends and relatives, white multiculturalists act as if other whites are creepy subhumans. (Thanks Hollywood and Washington and corporate boards!)
The facts of dysgenics and group socialization theory indicate conflicts will rise exponentially as the white population plummets and nonwhite population soars.
Genetic engineering will not stop the problem because nonwhites want their children to act tribalistic and excessively self-interested toward outgroup individuals. They don't want their children acting white, that is, with xenocentrism or outgroup altruism. Almost no parent, except white parents, will select genes for outgroup selflessness and unethical guilt.
If white only societies are re-created, nonwhites in other societies will be livid. Nonwhites will act as if they have a god given right to wreck white lives and societies.
Big deal.
Let them howl.
Whites must stop being intimidated by fallacious rhetoric. Nonwhites can't do as much damage from the outside. Nonwhite behavior toward whites is predictable from selfish gene theory.
But white only societies do need to keep a low profile and not be salient to anti-white totalitarianism. The multicultural media will try to infiltrate such societies, then demonize whites based on small samples fallacies and other fallacious rubbish.
Several varieties of white only societies must exist. Evangelical race realists and other race realist whites will not get along well within the same societies. The same goes for Libertarian and non-Libertarian race realists, to name but a few fault lines.
Those differences must be treated as minor and must not escalate into violence.
The biggest threat is from multiculturalism, and whites must peacefully unite to peacefully separate.
Segregation is separation within the same state.
Nonwhites mix segregation and cultural Marxism without widespread condemnation occurring, for example, segregation is rampant in Muslim countries. Policies in nonwhite countries massively discriminate against various ethnoracial groups (Copts, Mandeans, "guest" workers) without much wailing from multicultural media..
Nonwealthy whites get demonized for segregation by wealthy whites and others who self-segregate on the basis of their wealth. The moral views of wealthy whites are beyond warped. Wealthy whites act as if they become better persons by using totalitarian government actions to force dystopian integration on nonwealthy whites.
In sum, nonwhites and wealthy whites enjoy freedom of association, free to create groups that exclude others.
(Almost everything wealthy whites do in the public moral realm is immoral BS. They believe combinations of Randism, neoconservatism, third wayism, and cultural Marxism. They drive SUVs while acting smug for doing environmentally worthless activities like recycling plastic.)
But segregation and cultural Marxism are both evils.
The only ethical alternatives are complete peaceful separations. Whites must form their own self-reliant societies with no nonwhites. Other ethnoracial groups should do the same.
Trump is not great. He's an ethnoracial improvement, but he's a non-open borders multiculturalist with atrocious ideas on non-multicultural issues. Trump will make the white percentage of the population decline at a slower rate, but he will not reverse the decline.
Under Trumpism, millions of African-American men will continue to impregnate and abandon nonblack females, leaving the massive personal and social costs to whites, especially the family members of white females acting with naivete or recklessness. The main cuckolding is of nonwealthy whites. Despite being slurred as cucks*rvatives, wealthy Republican politicians seldom get cuckolded. Republican politicians engage in free riding via divide-and-rule, cheap labor, and other atrocious practices of neoclassical economics. Establishment politicians force the costs of cuckolding on the rest of us.
Trump will not enact eugenic and pro-natalist policies for whites. The total fertility rate for white-white matings will continue to decline or remain low.
The ethical costs of empire, militarism, dysgenics, and rotten ideologies will continue to rise.
Nonwhites will have less to feel discriminated about in white only nation-states since they will not live in these nation-states. And if nonwhites want to believe Marxian fallacies about Western wealth being dependent on exploitation of nonwhites, let them do it in their own societies where they can do less harm to whites.
Nonwhites act hyper-tribalistic. They notice most real or imagined slights while whites are indoctrinated to ignore evils by nonwhites and establishments. We regularly read about "microaggressions" and "code words" and "racially charged" and "dog whistling," even as the mass media fail to report that blacks are dozens of times more likely to commit violent stranger-on-stranger crimes against whites than vice versa. The dog whistling charade is risible. The Democratic and Republican establishments engaged in massive anti-white destruction for decades, yet we are supposed to worry about secret dog whistles from establishment Republican politicians, no matter how anti-white these politicians' actual policies are.
Since the supporters of cultural Marxism imagine group genetic differences are insignificant and view nonwhite cultures as superb, almost all suffering and misbehavior by nonwhites must, in their view, have whites as the most important cause. No matter what whites do, whites will be constantly be blamed and punished. Anyone who thinks the blame whitey campaign will end in the next thousand years is wrong.
If the last white person takes their last breath several hundred years from now, nonwhite leaders will continue to blame whites with their own far worse divide-and-rule practices.
Many mass media organizations ban their opinion makers from using slurs, yet simple Google searches reveal millions of anti-white slurs being used by the mass media (r*cist, b*got, Isl*mophobe, white supr*mecist, white tr*sh). Again, multiculturalists are not attuned to contradictions in their own behavior or contradictions in the behavior by other multiculturalists.
With the exception their own white friends and relatives, white multiculturalists act as if other whites are creepy subhumans. (Thanks Hollywood and Washington and corporate boards!)
The facts of dysgenics and group socialization theory indicate conflicts will rise exponentially as the white population plummets and nonwhite population soars.
Genetic engineering will not stop the problem because nonwhites want their children to act tribalistic and excessively self-interested toward outgroup individuals. They don't want their children acting white, that is, with xenocentrism or outgroup altruism. Almost no parent, except white parents, will select genes for outgroup selflessness and unethical guilt.
If white only societies are re-created, nonwhites in other societies will be livid. Nonwhites will act as if they have a god given right to wreck white lives and societies.
Big deal.
Let them howl.
Whites must stop being intimidated by fallacious rhetoric. Nonwhites can't do as much damage from the outside. Nonwhite behavior toward whites is predictable from selfish gene theory.
But white only societies do need to keep a low profile and not be salient to anti-white totalitarianism. The multicultural media will try to infiltrate such societies, then demonize whites based on small samples fallacies and other fallacious rubbish.
Several varieties of white only societies must exist. Evangelical race realists and other race realist whites will not get along well within the same societies. The same goes for Libertarian and non-Libertarian race realists, to name but a few fault lines.
Those differences must be treated as minor and must not escalate into violence.
The biggest threat is from multiculturalism, and whites must peacefully unite to peacefully separate.
Sunday, February 28, 2016
On Conspiracies
The word conspiracy means to plot in secret, often to harm others. Companies, political parties, and other organizations regularly do it. We aren't invited to their meetings. Yet we are subtly urged not to use the word conspiracy to describe such activities.
During just wars, just groups have good reasons for plotting in secret. Some other groups also have justifiable reasons for plotting in secret.
The phrase conspiracy theory is a combination straw person and circumstantial ad hominem attack used to dismiss opponents and treat them as mentally unhealthy. The phrase is used equivocally, meaning crazy, preposterous or a secret plot (or all three), often by establishments to associate critics with those who believe in alien abductions or other preposterous ideas. Calling alien abductions a conspiracy theory has little ethical importance. But the conspiracy theory phrase is a big deal when used to demonize well-reasoned political criticism.
Today, many facts get treated by establishments as "conspiracy theories." To name a few:
During just wars, just groups have good reasons for plotting in secret. Some other groups also have justifiable reasons for plotting in secret.
The phrase conspiracy theory is a combination straw person and circumstantial ad hominem attack used to dismiss opponents and treat them as mentally unhealthy. The phrase is used equivocally, meaning crazy, preposterous or a secret plot (or all three), often by establishments to associate critics with those who believe in alien abductions or other preposterous ideas. Calling alien abductions a conspiracy theory has little ethical importance. But the conspiracy theory phrase is a big deal when used to demonize well-reasoned political criticism.
Today, many facts get treated by establishments as "conspiracy theories." To name a few:
- Marxian states failed to return some allied POWs.
- Cultural Marxism not only exists, it is the major form of Marxism, with 71 percent of college freshmen opposing speech freedoms, but not their own speech freedoms, of course.
- Fast jihad is Islamic and is done by Muslims.
- We live in an intellectual climate far worse than McCarthyism. (The linked list is a fraction of those punished or threatened with punishment.)
- Nonwhites have worse ethnoracial behavior than whites and their behavior gets worse when their numbers increase.
- Words have more than one meaning: Jihad means both inner struggle and anti-Infidel totalitarianism, though the former meaning is used for equivocation to fool infidels.
Saturday, February 27, 2016
Which Group Is More Ethnoracially Unethical? A or B?
A: Supports freedom of political speech for all.
B: Supports freedom of political speech for Muslims, establishments, and followers of Marx.
A: Opposes imperialism.
B: Supports anti-white imperialism.
A: Supports self-determination for all ethnoracial groups.
B: Supports self-determination for only Muslims and nonwhites not subjugated by Muslims.
A: Supports pan-Europeanism or pan-Arcticism.
B: Supports wars among whites, war against China, plus wars for egoism, cronyism, globalism, and cultural Marxism.
A: Supports evidence from science.
B: Supports scientism and junk science for the cause.
A: Allows philosophical diversity.
B: Acts as if humans must live in cultural Marxian ideological bubbles.
A: Uses slurs sometimes. Uses neutral terms sometimes.
B: Almost always uses ad hominem attacks to refer to ethnoracial fact facers.
A: Supports Austerity.
A: Supports Austerity.
A: Uses relevant statistics sometimes. Uses small samples sometimes.
B: Uses small sample fallacies for worldwide demonization of whites
A: Tolerates criticism.
B: Demonizes whites. Treats Muslims and nonwhites as if off limits to well-reasoned criticism.
A: Tolerates political dissenters.
B: Believes political dissenters should be fired, sued, assaulted, murdered or ostracized.
A: Supports eugenics.
B: Supports dysgenic totalitarianism.
A: Good, enforced fences make better neighbors.
B: Permits Muslims to do evils in infidel countries. Supports Muslim subjugation of infidels in Muslim countries. Permits nonwhites to do evils in white countries.
A: Supports self-reliance or ethnoracial self-help.
B: Sacrifices almost nothing themselves to help nonwhites but destroys the jobs, lives, wages, schools, nations, cultures, families, and neighborhoods of nonwealthy whites to help nonwhites. Demands cheap labor races to bottoms.
A: Sometimes supports merit. Often supports rent seeking.
B: Almost always supports rent seeking.
B: Supports freedom of political speech for Muslims, establishments, and followers of Marx.
A: Opposes imperialism.
B: Supports anti-white imperialism.
A: Supports self-determination for all ethnoracial groups.
B: Supports self-determination for only Muslims and nonwhites not subjugated by Muslims.
A: Supports pan-Europeanism or pan-Arcticism.
B: Supports wars among whites, war against China, plus wars for egoism, cronyism, globalism, and cultural Marxism.
A: Supports evidence from science.
B: Supports scientism and junk science for the cause.
A: Allows philosophical diversity.
B: Acts as if humans must live in cultural Marxian ideological bubbles.
A: Uses slurs sometimes. Uses neutral terms sometimes.
B: Almost always uses ad hominem attacks to refer to ethnoracial fact facers.
A: Supports Austerity.
A: Supports Austerity.
A: Uses relevant statistics sometimes. Uses small samples sometimes.
B: Uses small sample fallacies for worldwide demonization of whites
A: Tolerates criticism.
B: Demonizes whites. Treats Muslims and nonwhites as if off limits to well-reasoned criticism.
A: Tolerates political dissenters.
B: Believes political dissenters should be fired, sued, assaulted, murdered or ostracized.
A: Supports eugenics.
B: Supports dysgenic totalitarianism.
A: Good, enforced fences make better neighbors.
B: Permits Muslims to do evils in infidel countries. Supports Muslim subjugation of infidels in Muslim countries. Permits nonwhites to do evils in white countries.
A: Supports self-reliance or ethnoracial self-help.
B: Sacrifices almost nothing themselves to help nonwhites but destroys the jobs, lives, wages, schools, nations, cultures, families, and neighborhoods of nonwealthy whites to help nonwhites. Demands cheap labor races to bottoms.
A: Sometimes supports merit. Often supports rent seeking.
B: Almost always supports rent seeking.
A: Sometimes democratic. Sometimes autocratic. Sometimes kleptocratic.
B: Almost always authoritarian kleptocratic.
A: Cares little about environment.
B: Pretends to care about environment.
A: Supports sustainable societies sometimes.
B: Supports dystopian hells in the name of equality and other buzzwords.
A: Capable of cognitive dissonance.
B: Seemingly unaware of thousands of self-contradictions.
A: Opposes cultural imperialism.
B: Supports cultural imperialism.
A: Sometimes acts as if claims should correspond with reality.
B: Acts as if repeating falsehoods turns them into facts.
A: Bait-and-switch, divide-and-screw.
B: Bait-and-switch, divide-and-screw more often.
A: Opposes genocide.
B: Supports anti-white genocide.
A needs some reforms. B does inverse weathervaning.
Friday, February 26, 2016
A List of Causal Factors and Other Ideas to Consider When Weighing Causal Claims
Let's say we plan to do a social science study or evaluate one or weigh an argument positing causes.
We should consider plausible alternative causal factors left out by a thinker.
I keep a book on my nightstand. When I read or think of a causal factor or other idea I should keep in mind, I sometimes write it in the first few pages of the book.
The list:
IQ, age, war, race, time, luck, laws, wealth, stress, fraud, zest, genes, diet, height, weight, BMI, wealth, income, culture, status, habits, power, gender, famine, crowding, apathy, egoism, altruism, anomie, placebo, nocebo (feeling harm from a harmless treatment), boredom, honesty, ethnicity, weather, fatigue, religion, diversity, seniority, incentives, geography, popularity, patience, hedonism, confusion, standards, novelty, naivete, sadism, nihilism, obeisance, anxiety, isolation, commitment, experience, solipsism, nationality, expectations, misanthropy, proximity, fanaticism, busyness, motivation, scientism, triumphalism, salience, replicability, ruminations, militarism, aggressiveness, suggestibility, masochism, desensitization, optimism, labor unions, obsessions, compulsions, groupthink, misandry, misogyny, careerism, xenocentrism, ethnocentrism, infrastructure, desensitization, self-loathing, nonbelief, corruption, ruthlessness, credentialism, cronyism, nepotism, competition, cooperation, victory, defeat, tax rates, tax targeting, participant compliance rates, street smarts, mortality rates, faulty study design, family size, tokenism, trustworthiness, skill level, arrival dates, leadership quality, overconfidence, underconfidence, one-sidedness, divorce rates, imitating others, democracy, non-democracy, self-pity, self-contradictions, noise levels, exercise levels, body image, employment status, confirmation bias, perceived weakness, career specialty, opportunity costs, pathogen load, educational level, youth bulges, genetic load, abortion rates, free riding, new discoveries, self-control, shared struggles, shared danger, unethical guilt, guilt proneness, shame proneness, false positives, false negatives, mutual causation, shell shock, Stockholm syndrome, witch hunting, misplaced loyalty, alliance quality, organization level, Hamilton's rule, educational field, absence of study controls, age at which a participant practiced a skill, perceived victimization, availability of distractions, feeling needed, perceived equality, unrepresentative sampling (including survivor bias and self-selection effects), ethical character, monocausal fallacies, body language, faulty study controls, voice tone, group polarization, development rates, job mobility, perceived fairness, drug use (including alcohol and smoking), improved police tactics, residential mobility, moral hazard, laziness, task persistence, hormone levels (testosterone, estrogen), crowd psychology, savings rates, monitoring effects (white man effect), study protocol violations, brain size, brain tumors, brain trauma, availability errors, halo effects, wedge issues, purposefulness, happiness, depression, despair, group cohesion, asceticism.
Plus some more: jealousy, anchoring (believing first claim heard on a subject), antinomianism, anthropomorphism, anthropocentrism, moral aestheticism, mechanical failures, math errors, hindsight error (easier to see errors after the event), chronic pain, acute pain, commitment level, conspicuous compassion, expected value, nutrient deficiencies, Duchenne smiles, political stability, single influential individual, repetition effects (believing claims repeated most often), other popularity effects, feeling entitled, celebrity worship, world weariness, legalized bribery, philosophical farsightedness, probability of success, belief in sacredness, small sample sizes, transitory situational factors, hyperbolic discounting, declining marginal utility, other cognitive impairments, enforcement or nonenforcement of standards, level of cognitive dissonance, perceived legitimacy, belief in karma, tit for tat, belief in ontological guilt (blood libel), inaccurate self-reports, tragedy of the commons, improved 911 service, substance poisoning (lead poisoning), publication bias, self-esteem, feeling superior, religious subtypes, the "big five" (openness to experience, agreeableness, neuroticism, extroversion, conscientiousness), framing effects (slanted questions, leading questions, and bad definitions), paradoxical effects, goal related effects, social skills, public policies, teacher quality, historical factors, teacher training, fatalistic beliefs, scaling effects (inaccurate extrapolation), relativistic beliefs, birth control rates, blood sugar levels, the dark triad (narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy), belief in scientism, peer group types, nation-state formation, divide-and-rule, time spent on activities, threshold effects (straw that breaks the back), social pressure, statistical insignificance, media influence, environmental aesthetics, study confederates influencing results, beliefs about hell, high, unstable self-esteem, chips on shoulders, faith in experts, length of employment, beliefs about grace, belief in authoritarianism, treasonous leadership, bait-and-switch, population increases, population decreases, faulty tests to measure alleged factors, study participants dropping out, fear of losing face, various other isms, chips on shoulders, non-parental environments, failure to ignore sunk costs, regression to the mean, ability to delay gratification, no causal relationship exists, perception of decay, follow the money, follow the power, errors due to random chance, belief in plausible deniability, homogeneous unrepresentative sampling, strength of will, time spent using electronics, browbeating and struggle sessions, viewing others as objects, reversing cause and effect, winner-take-all markets, results are statistically significant but too small to be important, swiftness and probability of punishment, monopoly and oligopoly effects, variance in genotypes and phenotypes, ratio of performance IQ to verbal IQ.
Wait.
I'm not done: number of working adults in a family or household, increased survival of big brained c-section babies, increased survival of small hip genotypes, belief in reciprocation, improved test taking skills, belief in exploiting weakness, belief that the feel good end justifies any means, belief that a feel good means justifies the result, ingroup and outgroup beliefs, improved emergency room medicine, economic opportunities in early adulthood, other technological factors, the probability of being caught, plus numerous other genetic and environmental factors I haven't thought of.
Good luck.
Figuring out causes is a pain in the rear.
"Correlation is not cause" is a banal statement. Correlation by itself does not prove cause is a better statement.
Most plausible study factors aren't looked at in most studies. Many studies are designed to fit the scientist's favored conclusions.
We should consider plausible alternative causal factors left out by a thinker.
I keep a book on my nightstand. When I read or think of a causal factor or other idea I should keep in mind, I sometimes write it in the first few pages of the book.
The list:
IQ, age, war, race, time, luck, laws, wealth, stress, fraud, zest, genes, diet, height, weight, BMI, wealth, income, culture, status, habits, power, gender, famine, crowding, apathy, egoism, altruism, anomie, placebo, nocebo (feeling harm from a harmless treatment), boredom, honesty, ethnicity, weather, fatigue, religion, diversity, seniority, incentives, geography, popularity, patience, hedonism, confusion, standards, novelty, naivete, sadism, nihilism, obeisance, anxiety, isolation, commitment, experience, solipsism, nationality, expectations, misanthropy, proximity, fanaticism, busyness, motivation, scientism, triumphalism, salience, replicability, ruminations, militarism, aggressiveness, suggestibility, masochism, desensitization, optimism, labor unions, obsessions, compulsions, groupthink, misandry, misogyny, careerism, xenocentrism, ethnocentrism, infrastructure, desensitization, self-loathing, nonbelief, corruption, ruthlessness, credentialism, cronyism, nepotism, competition, cooperation, victory, defeat, tax rates, tax targeting, participant compliance rates, street smarts, mortality rates, faulty study design, family size, tokenism, trustworthiness, skill level, arrival dates, leadership quality, overconfidence, underconfidence, one-sidedness, divorce rates, imitating others, democracy, non-democracy, self-pity, self-contradictions, noise levels, exercise levels, body image, employment status, confirmation bias, perceived weakness, career specialty, opportunity costs, pathogen load, educational level, youth bulges, genetic load, abortion rates, free riding, new discoveries, self-control, shared struggles, shared danger, unethical guilt, guilt proneness, shame proneness, false positives, false negatives, mutual causation, shell shock, Stockholm syndrome, witch hunting, misplaced loyalty, alliance quality, organization level, Hamilton's rule, educational field, absence of study controls, age at which a participant practiced a skill, perceived victimization, availability of distractions, feeling needed, perceived equality, unrepresentative sampling (including survivor bias and self-selection effects), ethical character, monocausal fallacies, body language, faulty study controls, voice tone, group polarization, development rates, job mobility, perceived fairness, drug use (including alcohol and smoking), improved police tactics, residential mobility, moral hazard, laziness, task persistence, hormone levels (testosterone, estrogen), crowd psychology, savings rates, monitoring effects (white man effect), study protocol violations, brain size, brain tumors, brain trauma, availability errors, halo effects, wedge issues, purposefulness, happiness, depression, despair, group cohesion, asceticism.
Plus some more: jealousy, anchoring (believing first claim heard on a subject), antinomianism, anthropomorphism, anthropocentrism, moral aestheticism, mechanical failures, math errors, hindsight error (easier to see errors after the event), chronic pain, acute pain, commitment level, conspicuous compassion, expected value, nutrient deficiencies, Duchenne smiles, political stability, single influential individual, repetition effects (believing claims repeated most often), other popularity effects, feeling entitled, celebrity worship, world weariness, legalized bribery, philosophical farsightedness, probability of success, belief in sacredness, small sample sizes, transitory situational factors, hyperbolic discounting, declining marginal utility, other cognitive impairments, enforcement or nonenforcement of standards, level of cognitive dissonance, perceived legitimacy, belief in karma, tit for tat, belief in ontological guilt (blood libel), inaccurate self-reports, tragedy of the commons, improved 911 service, substance poisoning (lead poisoning), publication bias, self-esteem, feeling superior, religious subtypes, the "big five" (openness to experience, agreeableness, neuroticism, extroversion, conscientiousness), framing effects (slanted questions, leading questions, and bad definitions), paradoxical effects, goal related effects, social skills, public policies, teacher quality, historical factors, teacher training, fatalistic beliefs, scaling effects (inaccurate extrapolation), relativistic beliefs, birth control rates, blood sugar levels, the dark triad (narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy), belief in scientism, peer group types, nation-state formation, divide-and-rule, time spent on activities, threshold effects (straw that breaks the back), social pressure, statistical insignificance, media influence, environmental aesthetics, study confederates influencing results, beliefs about hell, high, unstable self-esteem, chips on shoulders, faith in experts, length of employment, beliefs about grace, belief in authoritarianism, treasonous leadership, bait-and-switch, population increases, population decreases, faulty tests to measure alleged factors, study participants dropping out, fear of losing face, various other isms, chips on shoulders, non-parental environments, failure to ignore sunk costs, regression to the mean, ability to delay gratification, no causal relationship exists, perception of decay, follow the money, follow the power, errors due to random chance, belief in plausible deniability, homogeneous unrepresentative sampling, strength of will, time spent using electronics, browbeating and struggle sessions, viewing others as objects, reversing cause and effect, winner-take-all markets, results are statistically significant but too small to be important, swiftness and probability of punishment, monopoly and oligopoly effects, variance in genotypes and phenotypes, ratio of performance IQ to verbal IQ.
Wait.
I'm not done: number of working adults in a family or household, increased survival of big brained c-section babies, increased survival of small hip genotypes, belief in reciprocation, improved test taking skills, belief in exploiting weakness, belief that the feel good end justifies any means, belief that a feel good means justifies the result, ingroup and outgroup beliefs, improved emergency room medicine, economic opportunities in early adulthood, other technological factors, the probability of being caught, plus numerous other genetic and environmental factors I haven't thought of.
Good luck.
Figuring out causes is a pain in the rear.
"Correlation is not cause" is a banal statement. Correlation by itself does not prove cause is a better statement.
Most plausible study factors aren't looked at in most studies. Many studies are designed to fit the scientist's favored conclusions.
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Six Loathsome Genres of Political Arguments
- Trying to prop up atrocious ruling group worldviews by ridiculing something worse (the Westboro Baptist Church, for example).
- The man or woman of "reason."
- The team or party stands for [insert specious platitudes]. Popular among the likes of George Will, David Brooks, Paul Krugman, and party platform writers. Bait-and-switch, divide-and-screw.
- Contradicted by reality: neoconservatives and Third Wayers pretending they support America and democracy, egalitarians pretending they support equality, neoconservatives and Third Wayers pretending to be pro-worker, multiculturalists pretending they own the moral high ground.
- Fake centrism: mixing totalitarian ideas from left and right (Randism, neoconservatism, third wayism).
- Pretending to defend the nation but in reality, more divide-and-screw profiteering, salami slicing, shoring up political support or escalating tit for tat.
More Contradictions
Helicopter parents fret about the miniscule probability their children will be abducted by strangers, but act unconcerned about the high probability their children will be indoctrinated with hedonism, nihilism, neoconservatism, third wayism or biocultural Marxism.
Almost nobody tells these parents that their childrens' phenotype IQs not vary much from their genotype IQs by adulthood, no matter how many faddish "enriching activities" parents provide. Children are far more likely to die driving to and from an enriching activity than die from abduction by strangers.
*********
We're supposed to believe white racism is society's greatest evil, yet any behavior multiculturalists don't like, including ethical behaviors, can get whites fired, sued, unhired, boycotted, assaulted or ostracized.
And far worse actions by multiculturalists get ignored by establishments.
*********
Multiculturalists demonize Westerners for refusing to take more "refugees" during World War II, but multiculturalists refuse to take white refugees at risk of genocide in Zimbabwe and South Africa. Those former refugees had moral duties to stand and fascism and Marxism. Instead, they left the fighting to others.
And Muslim migrants should not be labeled refugees.
*********
They think: "democracy is a certain way of thinking, a specific set of opinions, and if you do not share them, then you aren’t democratic, and then we condemn you and you ought to be eliminated. The People? That is not democratic. We the Elite, we are democracy."
Almost nobody tells these parents that their childrens' phenotype IQs not vary much from their genotype IQs by adulthood, no matter how many faddish "enriching activities" parents provide. Children are far more likely to die driving to and from an enriching activity than die from abduction by strangers.
*********
We're supposed to believe white racism is society's greatest evil, yet any behavior multiculturalists don't like, including ethical behaviors, can get whites fired, sued, unhired, boycotted, assaulted or ostracized.
And far worse actions by multiculturalists get ignored by establishments.
*********
Multiculturalists demonize Westerners for refusing to take more "refugees" during World War II, but multiculturalists refuse to take white refugees at risk of genocide in Zimbabwe and South Africa. Those former refugees had moral duties to stand and fascism and Marxism. Instead, they left the fighting to others.
And Muslim migrants should not be labeled refugees.
*********
They think: "democracy is a certain way of thinking, a specific set of opinions, and if you do not share them, then you aren’t democratic, and then we condemn you and you ought to be eliminated. The People? That is not democratic. We the Elite, we are democracy."
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Human Reasoning Tendencies
Some who easily change beliefs have little willingness to stand up for those beliefs. They change beliefs with social pressure and feel good fads more than ethical evidence. In other words, they act wishy-washy not because they are guided by good evidence, but because they are easy to trick with rotten ideas.
Others care little about ethical beliefs, except trudging forward or backward with their own egoism, hedonism or selflessness. Just do it might be their motto.
Still others, pretend. They say, "Bro, do you even science?" But they wall off most of the moral universe to good reasoning. They think of themselves as scientific, philosophical, and open minded, but in practice, they use intuitions on moral issues, often reserving good reasoning for self-interest or the natural sciences. Albert Einstein was a paradigm case of this type.
Many unconsciously anchor with what they heard first or float with what they hear often.
Then we have those with minds even more closed to ethical reasoning. They will fight hard for whatever horrible ideas they have. They are also easy to manipulate, but once they choose a belief system, or more specifically, a team, they will fight like hell for the team. In tribes, they team up for life, unless they are sold, bartered or kidnapped. Evidence on individual issues seems irrelevant to them. Team beliefs on an issue matter more. That's why Trump was loudly booed for saying there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq (unless we define Islam, endogamy, and demography as weapons.) Trump's claim violated still existing team beliefs. And that team is no fan of Trump's team. Some switch teams for ideological reasons--David Brock and P.J. O'Rourke, for example--but devotion to a team often remains.
In tribes, even the most preposterous superstitions manage to survive.
The old witticism about a liberal being so tolerant that he will not take his own side in a fight now seems like a sick, cruel joke.
The fanaticism of establishments is so great that even societal or personal ruin might not change their beliefs. They attribute ruin to their political enemies and anything but their own egoism, militarism, and multiculturalism, no matter how overwhelming the evidence. Every Western city could be in ashes, and they would still chant the R word as the main cause.
The fact that contemporary mass media are able to create such fanaticism, combined with so much glitz, is both creepy and horrifying.
The above is neither an exhaustive nor non-overlapping list of tendencies. Some individuals move from one tendency to another. Many other tendencies exist, especially policing the boundaries of acceptable myths, keeping out unwanted facts with straw person and ad hominem attacks, plus searching for reasons to feel morally superior to others, without having to make any sacrifices oneself.
We could write thousands of books describing logical fallacies, psychological errors, and ethical wrongs.
But I will eat a roll of paper towels if anyone can show me an establishment donor, thinker or politician who gathers and accurately weighs the good points from various sides.
How do we teach and eugenically build better humans out of that mess? Contemporary logic and ethics textbooks are atrocious. Today's parents and thought leaders likely dysgenically engineer children to be worse.
But improving reasoning is even more important than increasing intelligence.
Others care little about ethical beliefs, except trudging forward or backward with their own egoism, hedonism or selflessness. Just do it might be their motto.
Still others, pretend. They say, "Bro, do you even science?" But they wall off most of the moral universe to good reasoning. They think of themselves as scientific, philosophical, and open minded, but in practice, they use intuitions on moral issues, often reserving good reasoning for self-interest or the natural sciences. Albert Einstein was a paradigm case of this type.
Many unconsciously anchor with what they heard first or float with what they hear often.
Then we have those with minds even more closed to ethical reasoning. They will fight hard for whatever horrible ideas they have. They are also easy to manipulate, but once they choose a belief system, or more specifically, a team, they will fight like hell for the team. In tribes, they team up for life, unless they are sold, bartered or kidnapped. Evidence on individual issues seems irrelevant to them. Team beliefs on an issue matter more. That's why Trump was loudly booed for saying there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq (unless we define Islam, endogamy, and demography as weapons.) Trump's claim violated still existing team beliefs. And that team is no fan of Trump's team. Some switch teams for ideological reasons--David Brock and P.J. O'Rourke, for example--but devotion to a team often remains.
In tribes, even the most preposterous superstitions manage to survive.
The old witticism about a liberal being so tolerant that he will not take his own side in a fight now seems like a sick, cruel joke.
The fanaticism of establishments is so great that even societal or personal ruin might not change their beliefs. They attribute ruin to their political enemies and anything but their own egoism, militarism, and multiculturalism, no matter how overwhelming the evidence. Every Western city could be in ashes, and they would still chant the R word as the main cause.
The fact that contemporary mass media are able to create such fanaticism, combined with so much glitz, is both creepy and horrifying.
The above is neither an exhaustive nor non-overlapping list of tendencies. Some individuals move from one tendency to another. Many other tendencies exist, especially policing the boundaries of acceptable myths, keeping out unwanted facts with straw person and ad hominem attacks, plus searching for reasons to feel morally superior to others, without having to make any sacrifices oneself.
We could write thousands of books describing logical fallacies, psychological errors, and ethical wrongs.
But I will eat a roll of paper towels if anyone can show me an establishment donor, thinker or politician who gathers and accurately weighs the good points from various sides.
How do we teach and eugenically build better humans out of that mess? Contemporary logic and ethics textbooks are atrocious. Today's parents and thought leaders likely dysgenically engineer children to be worse.
But improving reasoning is even more important than increasing intelligence.
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